If one attempted a first assessment today of the candidacies for the 2028 presidential elections, the safest conclusion is that the next contest will not resemble a classic confrontation between two camps. It will be, above all, a battle of survival, regrouping and repositioning for all the main political spaces.
Theoretically speaking, seven to eight possible candidacies can be placed on the table: Nikos Christodoulides, should he seek a second term, Christos Christou of ELAM, the AKEL candidate, the DISY candidate, Odysseas Michaelides with ALMA, a possible DIKO candidate, and perhaps one or two independents, along the lines of the Demetriades and Christofides candidacies of 2023. The question, of course, is not only how many candidates there will ultimately be. It is which of them can coexist on the same electoral map without cancelling each other out.
2023
The precedent of 2023 shows how decisive fragmentation can prove. Then, Nikos Christodoulides came first in the first round with 32.04%, Andreas Mavroyiannis second with 29.63% and Averof Neofytou third with 26.11%, missing the second round despite representing the country's largest party machine. In the runoff, Christodoulides prevailed narrowly, with roughly 51.9% against Mavroyiannis's 48.1%. The lesson of that ballot is that in Cyprus, when the big camps split, a candidate with the right bridge to the Centre and sufficient penetration into other pools can reach the second round, even against the traditional machines.
Could 2028 be a copy of 2023? After the 2026 parliamentary elections, the party map remains complex, with DISY and AKEL holding, at first glance, an advantage. DISY remained first with 27.1%, AKEL second with 23.89%, ELAM rose to third place with 10.9%, DIKO was confined to 10%, while ALMA entered Parliament with 5.8% and Direct Democracy with 5.4%. This means the 2028 Presidentials begin with the same ambitions, but with the two big parties by force of circumstance claiming the first say in nominating candidates, without it yet being clear how much room is available for "candidacies of every shade".
The incumbent President
The first big question concerns Nikos Christodoulides. If DISY, ELAM and DIKO field their own candidates, the incumbent's space shrinks dramatically. Christodoulides was elected in 2023 as the candidate who managed to connect segments of the intermediate space with part of the DISY base. If, however, DIKO attempts an autonomous run because it is displeased, as it appears, with Mr Christodoulides, if DISY rallies behind its own figure and if ELAM holds its steady pole, then the President will find himself on a much narrower path. He will need to prove that he possesses not merely a governmental presence but a genuine social and political pool for re-election, and he will certainly attempt to lean on the parties left outside Parliament. DIPA, EDEK, the Greens and the Hunters, who together exceed 10%, could constitute a significant clientele pool if they acquired a visible presence in the Cabinet ahead of an expected reshuffle, or through appointments to the semi-governmental organisations.
The key for Christodoulides, moreover, is not only the assessment of his governance. It is also whether his opponents will once again offer him the gift of division. If DISY descends into internal conflict, if AKEL struggles to find a candidate with broader appeal and if DIKO ultimately does not dare a full break, as members of its leadership appear to want, then the President can rebuild a narrative of "supra-party stability". If, on the contrary, the main camps organise cleanly and in good time, his candidacy risks being squeezed between the two poles of the Centre-Right and the Centre-Left.
DISY
The second decisive factor is DISY. The process of selecting the party's candidate will be no simple affair. On current data, the DISY candidate will be chosen through an island-wide electoral assembly with the participation of around 47,000 members, while interest is already recorded from figures such as Annita Demetriou, Averof Neofytou and Giorgos Pamboridis. If no dispute subsequently arises over who has the right to vote and the process ends in consensus, then DISY will have serious chances of placing its candidate in the second round. If, however, it develops into an internal settling of scores, then Christodoulides will attempt to slip once again into the "cracks" of Pindarou.
Here lies the great dilemma of Annita Demetriou and Averof Neofytou. Annita can represent the narrative of renewal, institutional image and reunification after 2023. Averof, on the other hand, possesses experience in handling the Cyprus problem and party roots, but also carries the weight of the 2023 defeat. If the final choice leaves wounded machines behind it, DISY risks suffering again what it suffered in 2023, namely having a candidate but not the whole party behind him.
AKEL
The third big question is the Centre-Left. AKEL is called upon to decide whether it will repeat the Mavroyiannis recipe or seek a new personality. The Mavroyiannis candidacy has a strong argument, since in 2023 he came within a breath of election. It also has a drawback, since it could be perceived as a return to a battle already lost. Some say this does not hold, since Mavroyiannis remains particularly popular even today, while Nikos Christodoulides's image is far more worn compared with 2022, when he announced his candidacy. On the other hand, the scenarios for new faces, such as Giorgos Pantelides, president of OEB, and Nicosia Mayor Charalambos Prountzos, point to a search for a candidate with a technocratic and economic profile. Pantelides, of DIKO origins, assumed the OEB presidency in 2025 and has been presented as a figure with strong acceptance in the business world. The centre-right Prountzos stood by Mavroyiannis in 2023 and defeated the DISY candidate in the 2025 municipal elections, but he will also be judged by his record as mayor.
For AKEL there is also the case of Christos Stylianides, which is, however, different. He is a figure with a European profile, governmental experience, DISY origins and positions on the Cyprus problem that can speak to progressive audiences. Reports as early as 2025 presented him as a possible contender for 2028, without him confirming such a scenario. If AKEL chose such a candidacy and carried it into the second round, it could claim a significant share of moderate DISY voters, especially if the DISY candidate had previously excluded or divided part of the party. The risk, however, is obvious: such an extra-party candidacy, with a political career in Greece as well, as a minister in the Mitsotakis Government, would first have to convince AKEL's own base. There is always, for AKEL, the candidacy of its general secretary, with Stefanos Stefanou enjoying enormous acceptance from the party base.
Odysseas
Odysseas Michaelides constitutes a separate variable. ALMA entered Parliament with an institutional, reformist narrative against entanglement, while Michaelides himself has stated that the ultimate goal is for the current governance to end in 2028. If the polls of 2027 show he possesses notable momentum, it is possible he will be proposed or discussed as a solution for a broader opposition rallying. If, however, AKEL does not choose him, the likeliest outcome is that he will run autonomously with ALMA. In that scenario, it is not certain he can reach the second round, but he can decisively influence who does, and moreover play the role of catalyst on the second Sunday.
ELAM
ELAM, with Christos Christou, appears, on the basis of the tactics it has followed so far, the most predictable player. After third place in the parliamentary elections, it has every reason to run autonomously. In the second round, without expending its anti-systemic political capital, it can choose the Centre-Right candidate who gets through. In its case, in short, it is enough to confirm that it constitutes a stable third pole, maintain its influence and become the regulator of the second Sunday.
DIKO
DIKO is perhaps the most difficult riddle. Nicolas Papadopoulos does not hide his displeasure at the way his party is treated by the Presidential Palace, while Christiana Erotokritou has already articulated the position that DIKO must run with its own candidate in the 2028 Presidentials. If the party follows this line, it moves away from the model of full support for Christodoulides and attempts to recover an autonomous role. The question is whether DIKO possesses a figure who can stand in a presidential race without becoming trapped between the President, DISY and AKEL. If it does not, an autonomous run may end up more as a negotiating card than a genuine claim. It should be stressed that an autonomous DIKO run in reality favours DISY, since it complicates the incumbent President's chances of reaching the second round.
The realistic scenario
On current data, the most realistic assessment is that the first round will feature six main poles: Christodoulides, DISY, AKEL/Centre-Left, ELAM, ALMA and DIKO or another centrist candidate. One or two smaller independents may be added. The total number of candidates may therefore hover around seven or eight, but the real battle will be fought between three: the DISY candidate, the Centre-Left candidate and Nikos Christodoulides, should he be a candidate.
The likeliest scenario for the second round, on today's data, is a DISY versus Centre-Left battle, if both camps manage to field a clear, unifying and timely announced candidate. The scenario of a 2023 repeat, that is Christodoulides against a candidate backed by AKEL, remains possible only if DISY splits. Correspondingly, a Christodoulides versus DISY scenario would require a weak choice from the Centre-Left and a containment of ALMA's momentum.
Conclusion
The 2028 Presidentials will not be decided only by who is most popular. They will be decided by who manages to unite his own space without frightening the neighbours. Christodoulides needs fragmentation of his opponents. DISY needs a clean, unifying internal solution. AKEL needs a candidate who reaches beyond its limits. ALMA needs to prove it is something more than a protest vote. Finally, DIKO must decide whether it wants the role of complementary force or autonomous player.
In other words, 2028 will not simply be the election of a President. It will be the ballot that shows whether Cyprus's political system is returning to two big poles (a sign the parliamentary elections gave) or entering definitively an era of multi-fragmentation.
