The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has recorded a major surge in Saxony-Anhalt, securing 44.5% of the vote according to an exit poll by ARD/Infratest dimap.
The result puts the AfD well ahead of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which is projected to take 18.5% of the vote.
The election in the eastern German state is being closely watched across Europe, with the exit poll putting the AfD closer than ever to the possibility of forming a government on its own in a German state.
However, the projected result would leave the party just short of an outright majority in the 83-seat state parliament.
The Left is projected to win 9.5%, followed by the Greens on 9% and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) on 8%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is on 5%, leaving its eventual entry into the state parliament uncertain.
AfD three seats short of majority
Based on the exit poll, the projected distribution of seats in the state parliament is:
- AfD: 39 seats
- CDU: 16 seats
- The Left: 8 seats
- Greens: 8 seats
- SPD: 7 seats
- BSW: 5 seats
An absolute majority requires at least 42 of the 83 seats.
The projection would therefore leave the AfD three seats short of the threshold needed to govern alone.
Dramatic shift from 2021
The projected result represents a major change from the previous state election in 2021.
The AfD is projected to have increased its share of the vote by 23.7 percentage points, more than doubling its previous support.
The CDU, meanwhile, is down 18.6 percentage points, while the Left has lost 1.5 points and the SPD 0.4 points.
The Greens are projected to gain 3.1 percentage points, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) has suffered a sharp decline, losing 4.4 points and falling out of contention for representation in the state parliament.
‘Firewall’ against AfD faces new test
The possibility of the AfD forming Germany’s first far-right state government since the Second World War will depend on whether it can secure an outright majority.
Even a decisive electoral victory would not automatically translate into government power, as the major parties have ruled out forming coalitions with the AfD.
The result is therefore expected to put Germany’s so-called Brandmauer, or “firewall”, against cooperation with the far right under renewed pressure.
A strong AfD performance could intensify the debate over whether the policy of excluding the party from government can be maintained if it consistently wins significantly more support than its political rivals.
The final outcome, including whether the BSW clears the threshold for parliamentary representation, will be crucial in determining the composition of the next state government.
