By Valia Kaimaki
"The response to the threat of overshoot must be overwhelming, otherwise the world as we know it is over."
The warning came from Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine at the COP31 summit in Antalya, referring to the prospect of global temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Heine described rising sea levels, flooding that threatens settlements, schools and hospitals, and coral reefs that she saw teeming with life in July but which had turned white just a few months later.
The following day, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham described the end of a different world: that of international consensus on tackling climate change.
"The consensus we once had on science and climate has been lost," he said, while also acknowledging that exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold is now unavoidable.
The absences
According to the United Nations, 91 leaders attended the COP31 Leaders' Summit on 11 and 12 November. However, several of the most prominent figures were absent. U.S. President Donald Trump did not even send an official delegation, while Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz did not travel to Turkey. Burnham was the only G7 leader to attend.
Brazil's newly elected president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, referred to shifting international priorities.
"We have begun talking more about weapons and tariffs than about the survival of future generations," he said, criticising the retreat of climate action in the face of geopolitical conflicts.
Brazil, which hosted the previous conference, is promoting a roadmap for the gradual phase-out of fossil fuels, seeking to give concrete substance to the related commitment agreed at COP28 in Dubai.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres accused the fossil fuel industry of misleading the public about climate science and delaying action.
"Fossil fuels must follow the path of the dinosaurs," he said, adding that "the dinosaurs did not have lobbyists, fossil fuels do."
He called on countries to accelerate emissions reductions and end their dependence on coal, oil and natural gas.
The contradictions
The conference's two hosts faced contradictions of their own.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called on governments to move from promises to action, pointing out that every delay in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement increases both risks and costs.
However, two days earlier he had celebrated the discovery of two new oil fields in the Gabar region of southeastern Turkey, which, according to initial estimates, contain a combined 135 million barrels of oil.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, whose country is co-hosting COP31 and holds the presidency of the negotiations, spoke of responsibilities towards Pacific nations.
He referred to a visit to Tuvalu and a meeting with a 13-year-old girl who dreams of becoming a doctor but worries about the future of her homeland.
Australia, however, remains one of the world's largest exporters of coal and liquefied natural gas. In his speech, Albanese avoided mentioning fossil fuels, drawing criticism.
Britain, meanwhile, sought to link the climate crisis to national security.
Burnham announced the appointment of Madeleine Alessandri, former head of the Joint Intelligence Committee, as special envoy for climate security.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband warned that food shortages, population displacement and damage to critical infrastructure are turning climate change into a national security threat.
At the same time, however, the British government has approved development of the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea and has reduced funding for a programme supporting the installation of household heat pumps.
Electrification of the economy
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented electrification of the economy as a key tool of the energy transition, backing the Turkish presidency's initiative to accelerate the use of clean electricity.
She also reaffirmed the European Union's commitment to reducing emissions by 90% by 2040.
In contrast, Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, defended her country's "sovereign right" to develop its oil industry.
"We do not believe there is an inevitable contradiction between energy development and environmental protection," she said, arguing that a just transition must transform economies rather than stop them.
For Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, the key issue is how far the world remains from the goals it set for itself.
Even if all current commitments are implemented, she said, citing UN figures, global warming would reach 2.6 degrees Celsius, while current policies put the world on a trajectory towards 2.8 degrees.
"Overshoot is not a new target. It is a heat debt, borrowed from the future of our children. And it must be repaid."
Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu focused on financing adaptation to climate change.
He called for predictable resources, primarily through grants rather than new loans, stressing that countries that have contributed least to the climate crisis should not be burdened with additional debt in order to deal with its consequences.
Guterres proposed taxing the windfall profits of oil companies. According to figures he presented, nine of the sector's largest companies generated profits of $95 billion in a single quarter, while the international Loss and Damage Fund had raised about $600 million.
The Turkish presidency wants COP31 to be remembered as a conference focused on implementing commitments.
On 11 November, a group of countries backed the "35 by 35" initiative, which aims to increase electricity's share of global final energy consumption from about 23% today to 35% by 2035.
The transition primarily concerns transport, building heating and industry.
According to Australian Energy Minister and chief negotiator Chris Bowen, achieving the target would require more than quadrupling the current rate of growth in electricity's share of energy consumption.
At least 14 countries have publicly supported the initiative, including Germany, Australia, South Korea and several small island states.
The European Union has not yet completed the process of endorsing the proposal, while the full list of participating countries is expected to be published next week.
Electrification alone, however, does not guarantee emissions reductions.
The World Resources Institute (WRI) argues that governments must accompany it with the expansion of clean energy sources, stronger electricity grids, energy storage and specific national policies.
For now, "35 by 35" remains a voluntary commitment, while discussions continue on how electrification will be reflected in the conference's final decision.
A second negotiation concerns methane, the potent greenhouse gas that is the second-largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide.
France is seeking the inclusion of specific methane-reduction commitments in the final decision, aiming for near-zero methane intensity in the oil and gas sector by 2030 and an end to routine gas flaring.
Mottley argued that voluntary initiatives are insufficient and called for consideration of a legally binding international agreement that would also cover agriculture.
At the same time, negotiations continue over the roadmap promoted by Brazil for moving away from fossil fuels.
The commitment was first formulated at COP28 but without a specific implementation timetable.
The Antalya negotiations will determine whether the initiative gains broader political backing and how work on it will proceed.
COP31 officially concludes on 20 November.
By then, negotiators must decide which of the initiatives presented in Antalya will be included in the final decision, what form they will take and what commitments participating countries will ultimately undertake.
