From the establishment of the Republic of Cyprus to the present day, the country has faced numerous crises. Intercommunal unrest, a coup and invasion, referendums, a stock market crash, economic collapse, the banking haircut, the Mari explosion, “golden” passports, the pandemic and, most recently, the “videogate” and “Sandy” cases that currently dominate public attention.
These experiences shape society and clearly influence behaviour, the way citizens interact and how they participate in political processes.
As the May parliamentary elections approach, discussion has focused on disappointment with institutions and political parties, as well as a lack of trust, in order to explain increased abstention. But is this the whole truth? An analysis of all parliamentary elections of the Republic shows that numbers tell their own story and help draw conclusions—or at least reasonable observations.
Increase in voters, decrease in participation
The first parliamentary elections took place in 1960, with turnout at 57.9%. Participation then followed an upward trend, peaking in 1981 at 95.75%. From that point onwards, abstention began to rise and participation declined.
In 2011, turnout fell to 78.70%, more than 10 percentage points lower than in 2006. In 2016, a similarly sharp drop of nearly 12 points brought turnout to 66.74%, a level that has continued to decline since.
It is noteworthy that from 1960 to 2021, the electorate increased by 318,669 voters. The electorate includes all citizens registered on electoral rolls who have the right to vote in presidential, parliamentary and European elections. Turnout refers to those who actually cast a ballot, while abstention αφορά those registered who did not vote.
The phenomenon of the 1980s
The 1981 parliamentary elections recorded the highest turnout ever in Cyprus. Electoral analyst Dr Vasilis Protopapas explains that the period was marked by a very intense political climate, with strong internal conflicts and a widespread sense among citizens that their vote mattered.
These were the first elections under enhanced proportional representation, with more parties participating, although only four entered parliament: AKEL, DISY, DIKO and EDEK. There was strong polarisation and political mobilisation following the coup and Turkish invasion, while these were also the first elections after the death of Archbishop Makarios, a major political figure.
According to Dr Protopapas, this period provides a useful reference point for analysing electoral behaviour, as Cypriot society began to stabilise despite ongoing tensions. By 2001, all parties had participated in government, either alone or in coalitions, leading to widespread disappointment among voters and a broad disillusionment of expectations.
The turning point of 2011
A clear shift in turnout appeared in 2011, when participation dropped significantly. One important factor was compulsory voting. Although officially abolished in 2017, it had already weakened following Cyprus’s accession to the European Union in 2004.
In practice, citizens felt there would be no consequences for not voting—and indeed, none were ever imposed—though the existence of the law had previously influenced voter behaviour.
The impact of 2016
The 2016 elections marked the second-largest decline in turnout, reaching 66.74%. This period was heavily influenced by the financial crisis and the bank deposit haircut, a trend that continued in subsequent elections.
Despite rising abstention, participation in Cyprus remains relatively high compared to other countries. During the global financial crisis, turnout in countries such as Greece and the United Kingdom fell below 70%, with Greece reaching as low as 56.16%.
In the United States, which also has a presidential system, turnout in presidential elections between 2012 and 2020 ranged between 57.5% and 66.8%.
Although one could question how democratic elections are when a large portion of the population does not vote, this does not practically affect the electoral outcome. As Dr Protopapas explains, turnout does not influence the allocation of parliamentary seats, which is based solely on valid ballots cast.
Social causes
Although abstention remains relatively low compared to other countries, it continues to concern political scientists. Researchers attribute the phenomenon to various socio-economic and institutional factors.
Associate professor and electoral analyst Dr Nasios Oreinos explains that key factors include political interest and education. Studies show that individuals with higher levels of education are more likely to vote, as they are more engaged with current affairs and understand the impact of their vote.
Historically, the Cyprus issue was a major driver of voter turnout. However, with the economic crisis and the decline of compulsory voting, abstention increased as public disappointment with politics intensified.
Before 2000, the family environment was also a strong influence, while party affiliation was closely tied to identity. As Dr Protopapas notes, voters once felt very close to their party, a relationship that has gradually weakened due to disappointment, mistakes and corruption.
Today, far fewer citizens feel a sense of belonging to a political party or certainty about how they will vote.
What to expect in May
Regarding the upcoming parliamentary elections, Dr Protopapas expects turnout to decline by about one percentage point, similar to the drop between 2016 and 2021, reaching approximately 64%.
According to these projections, no increase in participation is expected. However, every election carries uncertainties, and no prediction is absolute until votes are cast.
This article was originally published on the Greek-language Politis website.