The publication of four opinion polls this week - by Prime Consulting for Sigma, CIMAR for ANT1, RAI Consultants for Alpha Cyprus and Pulse for Omega - points to a clear conclusion: the May 24 parliamentary elections are unfolding in an unprecedentedly fluid environment. The uncertainty extends beyond the race for first place and affects every level of party competition, including how the political system will function after the vote.
This is not just another closely contested election. The outcome is expected to push Cyprus into a deeper transitional phase, reshaping the structure of its party system.
DISY-AKEL
At the centre of this shift is the weakening of the traditional two-party dominance of Democratic Rally (DISY) and Progressive Party of Working People. For decades, the two parties combined regularly exceeded 65% of the vote, reaching nearly 69% in the 2001 elections. Alongside Democratic Party, they helped sustain a relatively stable and predictable parliamentary system.
Current polling, however, suggests that even in the most favourable scenario, DISY and AKEL together may struggle to reach 50%. This marks a structural shift, not just a numerical decline, in parliamentary representation.
The contest for first place between the two remains extremely tight. Most polls show either a statistical tie or marginal differences, with both parties polling around 21%-23%. While perceptions of likely victory appear to favour DISY, potentially influencing undecided voters, the margin is so narrow that last-minute shifts could determine the final outcome.
Other battles
Beyond the top two, competition is intensifying. ELAM appears to be consolidating third place with support between 10% and 13%, maintaining a relatively stable voter base compared with more volatile parties. It continues to capitalise on protest sentiment, though recent polls hint at potential pressure from newer entrants such as ALMA and Direct Democracy.
The race for fourth, fifth and sixth place remains wide open. ALMA, Direct Democracy and DIKO are polling at similar levels, with fluctuations across surveys. Volt Cyprus is also emerging as a contender for parliamentary entry, with consistent support across polls.
The catalysts
A decisive factor is the large share of undecided voters, which in some surveys approaches or exceeds 25%. This group, with weaker party identification, is expected to make final decisions close to election day. Historically, many undecided voters drift towards larger parties, particularly DISY. If that pattern holds, fragmentation may be limited. If not, and support shifts to smaller or newer parties, the result could be a significantly more fragmented political landscape.
This volatility reflects broader public dissatisfaction. In some polls, up to 70% of respondents believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, citing concerns over the economy, corruption and institutional effectiveness. Disillusionment with both parliament and the executive is driving voters to seek alternatives, with many saying they feel unrepresented by existing parties.
Questions of effectiveness
The erosion of traditional party loyalties is one of the most significant changes. Voters are increasingly making choices based on short-term considerations rather than long-standing affiliations, weakening the organisational strength of major parties and benefiting smaller ones.
The post-election picture is likely to be complex. Most scenarios suggest a multi-party parliament with at least seven parties, though some projections do not rule out as many as ten. In such a setting, forming stable majorities will be difficult, requiring cooperation among at least three parties to pass key legislation.
This would give smaller parties disproportionate influence. Parties with 6%-10% support could become pivotal, shaping or blocking legislative initiatives. At the same time, the absence of established alliances - such as past cooperation between DISY and DIKO - raises the risk of deadlock.
Cyprus is moving from a relatively stable political model to one characterised by greater pluralism but also instability. The key question is not only who comes first, but whether the next parliament will be able to function effectively.
This article was originally published on the Greek-language Politis website.