Cyprus appears to be heading into one of the most fluid and unpredictable electoral contests in decades, ahead of the May 2026 parliamentary elections. Findings from three separate opinion polls – conducted for Antenna TV, Sigma TV and Politis – up to mid‑March reveal a deep transformation of the electorate. The comparison with the official results of the 2021 parliamentary elections shows not just erosion, but a reshaping of political balances.
From dominance to contraction
In 2021, DISY and AKEL together secured 50% of the vote. DISY received 27.8% and AKEL 22.2%, reaffirming the long‑standing two‑party core of the system. Today, according to polls, the two parties range between 14% and 17%. The decline is not merely numerical – it is structural.
DISY’s losses amount to more than 10 percentage points and AKEL’s to around five, without signs of a strong recovery compared with 2021. Instead, a new, much lower ceiling of influence appears to be forming. This ceiling could rise if the two major parties manage to win back a proportional share of the undecided vote, which exceeds 25%. In such a scenario, DISY might reach around 22–23% and AKEL 21-22%.
ELAM: From the margins to a stable pole
A clear sign of change comes from ELAM’s trajectory. The party won 6.76% in 2021. It is now polling at or above 10%. Its rise is steady and cross‑partisan in terms of voter inflows. ELAM is no longer merely a protest party but a stable third force with potential double‑digit support. Its major weakness remains its single‑issue focus on migration – a topic the government avoids confronting directly, viewing the far‑right party as a likely ally for the 2028 presidential elections.
Realignment in the centre
DIKO, which received 11.3% in 2021, now appears to be polling at roughly half that strength – between 6.8% and 8% – though recent measurements show a slight uptick. Meanwhile, new formations such as ALMA score 7-9%, threatening even ELAM’s position in third place, while Direct Democracy registers 6-8%, absorbing discontent directed at traditional centrist parties.
The picture shows clearly that the centre is not merely shrinking – it is being reshaped. Historic parties such as EDEK, once at 6.7%, now hover at 1-2%, facing the real risk of losing their seats altogether. The Greens, who had 4.4%, also appear weakened. In contrast, Volt seems to be gaining momentum, polling close to the entry threshold.
The undecided
The most decisive element in the polls is the share of undecided voters, reaching up to 25%. One in four citizens has not yet made a choice. Compared with 2021, when voting patterns were more “locked in,” today the electorate appears far more fluid and unpredictable.
This means:
• Final outcomes could shift significantly
• The ranking of parties is far from certain
• Whether certain parties enter Parliament will be determined literally at the last moment
Towards a multi‑party Parliament
Based on current data, the next Parliament will likely consist of six parties, with a strong possibility – given Volt’s rise – of seven.
Parties considered certain to enter:
- DISY
- AKEL
- ELAM
- DIKO
- ALMA
- Direct Democracy
Key questions concern:
- Volt, which is nearing the threshold
- EDEK, which is borderline or outside
In any case, the 2026 Parliament will be as fragmented as that of 2021.
The end of two‑party dominance
The most substantial political conclusion is that the two‑party model that shaped Cypriot politics for decades seems to be coming to an end. From a system where two parties dominated – together securing 67% in the 2016 elections – Cyprus is moving towards a multi‑party landscape with several centres of influence.
Voter movement toward ELAM, ALMA and smaller parties, combined with the high percentage of undecided voters, shows that voting behaviour is becoming detached from long‑standing party identity. Citizens appear more selective, more detached, and more willing to change their vote.
A difficult day after
This landscape points to a Parliament with more voices – but also more difficulty in decision‑making. Coalitions will be more complex, majorities more fragile, and smaller parties more influential than ever.
The May parliamentary elections will not be just another electoral contest. They will mark a turning point for the Cypriot political system. The outcome will determine not only the composition of Parliament but the shape of the political scene for years to come. For the first time in decades, nothing can be taken for granted.
What does this mean in practice? It marks the end of “easy” majorities. With DISY and AKEL weakened, predictable majorities anchored on one of the two major parties are no longer feasible. With six or seven medium‑sized parties holding between two and thirteen seats each, no single force will be able to dominate. Every bill will require negotiation, and “opportunistic alliances” are likely to increase.
If poll numbers are confirmed, medium‑sized parties will gain disproportionate influence. They will be able to sway votes, negotiate concessions, shape the political agenda beyond their size, and may generate more clashes, delays in decision‑making and added difficulty in implementing reforms. Especially on critical issues – such as the economy, reforms, and the Cyprus problem – decisions will become significantly harder.
At the same time, there may be some positives. From a concentrated system with a few dominant players, Cyprus could shift to a more decentralised political structure where “no one governs alone.” Such systems, however, require political maturity and a willingness to cooperate.