With roughly two months remaining before the parliamentary elections, the political scene remains fluid, with the battle for first place proving tough and unpredictable. Even fourth place is still wide open, with three parties competing for this pivotal position in the new political map. Considerable interest also surrounds the smaller parties striving to enter the new Parliament. All fronts in this election are likely to be influenced by undecided voters, who continue to register in opinion polls at high levels of up to 15%.
First place
Panayiotis Panayiotou, CEO of Pulse Market Research, described the contest between DISY and AKEL for first place as “a difficult battle.” He noted that AKEL has shown higher voter mobilisation than DISY over the past two months, bringing the two parties very close. He emphasised, however, that in the previous parliamentary elections DISY also recorded low mobilisation early on, which increased as election day approached.
Election analyst Nasios Oreinos similarly predicted intense competition between DISY and AKEL up until the end. He said DISY has placed strong emphasis on the stakes involved in securing first place and maintaining its leading role, describing this as a solid and clear narrative that can assist efforts to win back former supporters and strengthen mobilisation. He added that DISY used the same narrative effectively in the 2024 European elections.
Oreinos noted that DISY’s chances of finishing first will depend on the party loyalty of its base and whether supporters want to ensure the party retains the top position. A second key factor, he said, is the extent to which undecided voters return to the party. A third is the return of voters who have drifted away – leakage that currently amounts to 32%. He added that DISY has traditionally benefited from strong voter turnout among its supporters, and that if mobilisation rises by ten points, the party will greatly improve its chances of finishing first.
He also said AKEL’s narrative is strong. The left-wing party is presenting itself as the only real opposition force, a message that resonates given public dissatisfaction with the President of the Republic. AKEL’s performance, he noted, will depend on the return of voters who have drifted away, which currently accounts for around 22%. He added that AKEL’s voter leakage is smaller than DISY’s, which explains its higher mobilisation. Reducing leakage and winning back undecided voters are therefore the two key variables shaping AKEL’s bid for first place.
Oreinos referred to polling by Prime Consulting for Sigma TV, stating that the most recent survey showed DISY’s mobilisation at 54% and AKEL’s at 69%. He pointed out that in that survey, both major parties stood at 17%. He recalled that Prime Consulting’s March 2021 poll had placed DISY first with a two‑point lead over AKEL, despite DISY having an even lower mobilisation rate at the time – around 51% – while AKEL stood at 63%.
IMR CEO Christina Kokkalou highlighted another factor affecting AKEL’s numbers: the polls have not yet captured the impact of Eirini Charalambidou’s candidacy with ALMA, something that will likely appear in upcoming surveys.
Undecided voters
Asked whether the large share of undecided voters might ultimately determine the election outcome, Panayiotis Panayiotou of Pulse Market Research said their role may indeed be decisive in several key areas. These include the race for first place, as well as the competition between Direct Democracy, ALMA, and DIKO, three parties currently close in polling. Their impact will also be felt in the battle for fourth place and among parties seeking parliamentary entry, such as EDEK, Volt, the Green Party-Citizens’ Cooperation, and possibly DIPA.
He added that current research suggests undecided voters may not behave in the same way as those who have already declared a preference. Polling adjustments typically assume they will, but “we do not yet have strong indications to support that,” he said.
According to Kokkalou, recent shifts in the political landscape, along with changing voter behaviour and criteria, have made the work of pollsters far more difficult. Predictive models once relied on established patterns that no longer apply, making simple proportional adjustments for undecided voters less reliable.
Asked how undecided voters differ from decided ones, Panayiotou said the key factor is the variety of new options now available – though this does not necessarily mean undecided voters will choose them. “For the first time,” he noted, “we have three new parties – Direct Democracy, ALMA, and Volt – that together may achieve up to 20%.”
The ‘hidden vote’
There is always a segment of citizens who have not yet decided, Oreinos said. Many voters make up their minds in the final weeks, and some on the last day. It is therefore important to determine whether those who previously supported specific parties but are now undecided will ultimately return. DISY currently holds the largest share of undecided voters, reflecting its lower mobilisation rate.
Referring to Prime Consulting’s latest survey, where undecided voters stood at 13%, Oreinos said that 23% of that group previously voted for DISY and 14% for AKEL. These two parties therefore have the most undecided voters, making their ability to win them back critical. Another key challenge is whether they can recapture voters who have drifted to other parties. In the past, he said, this return was expected, but party identification has weakened and new political alternatives now exist.
He added that 8% of respondents in the latest poll refused to disclose their voting intention. Some may already know how they will vote but choose not to answer. This constitutes a “hidden vote” which, if it moves disproportionately in one direction, could significantly alter some parties’ final percentages.
Nicosia’s undecided voters
In Noverna’s second poll for Politis, conducted between 26 February and 11 March 2026, the combined share of undecided voters and those who said they would not vote reached 25.9%. An additional 1.3% said they would cast a blank ballot, and another 1.3% refused to answer – bringing the total to 28.5% of respondents, a sizeable figure likely to influence the final outcome.
Asked about the demographic profile of this large group, Noverna director Haris Papageorgiou said they tend to be younger, with a higher proportion of women, and are more heavily concentrated in the Nicosia district. Specifically, 60% are women and 40% men. Geographically, 45% are in Nicosia, 25% in Limassol, 17% in Larnaca, 8% in Paphos, and 5% in Famagusta. In terms of age, 56% are under 44, with 33% of that group aged 18-34. A further 16% are aged 45-54, 11% are 55-64, and 17% are 65 or older.
Papageorgiou also analysed how these undecided voters had voted in 2021. Of the 28.5% in the current poll, 18.5% had voted for DISY, 10% for DIKO, 6% for AKEL, another 6% for EDEK, and 4% for DIPA. He said DISY’s large presence in this group gives it the greatest potential for gains – if those voters return.
As for whether the undecided share will shrink closer to election day, Papageorgiou said some of these voters will likely not vote at all. He estimated that the undecided rate will fall to around 23% by election day, with overall turnout reaching approximately 77%.