Recent US diplomatic efforts to bring Russia and Ukraine back to the negotiating table have once again ended without a breakthrough.
The failure was hardly surprising. Washington continues to pursue a strategy that places pressure on Kyiv while avoiding meaningful pressure on Moscow, despite the fact that Russia remains the invading power and the party that launched the war.
For months, the Trump administration's initiatives have been built around the assumption that Ukraine can be persuaded, pressured or even compelled into accepting territorial concessions in exchange for peace. Yet after more than five years of war, there is little evidence that Ukrainians are prepared to accept a settlement that legitimises the loss of their territory.
The latest round of diplomatic contacts followed the same pattern. While there were indications that both sides might be prepared to explore talks, those hopes quickly faded. The American envoys returned without progress because the basic reality of the conflict remains unchanged.
The war has inflicted a devastating toll on both countries. Thousands have been killed, economies have been strained and entire communities have been displaced. As the conflict approaches the 1,900-day mark, exhaustion is evident on all sides.
There is broad agreement that the war should end. The question is how.
As long as international mediation efforts focus primarily on extracting concessions from Ukraine rather than increasing pressure on Russia, meaningful progress will remain elusive. Any sustainable settlement depends on decisions taken in the Kremlin, not in Kyiv.
Those genuinely seeking an end to the conflict should therefore recognise where the key to peace lies. The path to a negotiated settlement runs through Moscow.
