Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned on Wednesday that any renewed US attack on Iran would trigger a war extending "beyond the region," as diplomatic efforts to end the three-month conflict showed little sign of progress and the US Senate took a historic step toward limiting the president's war powers.
The warning came a day after President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that he had been "an hour away" from ordering a resumption of bombing. Trump made the same claim on Monday and again on Tuesday, framing the restraint as a diplomatic concession rather than a retreat. Vice President JD Vance, who led the sole US delegation to peace talks held in Islamabad last month, sought to reassure a domestic audience that the conflict would not drag on indefinitely. "This is not a forever war," Vance said at a White House press briefing on Tuesday. "We're going to take care of business and come home."
The ceasefire, reached in early April after Pakistan brokered a temporary halt to hostilities, has largely held but is under visible strain. Iran submitted a new proposal to Washington this week, though its publicly stated terms, including control over the Strait of Hormuz, compensation for war damage, the lifting of sanctions, the release of frozen assets, and the withdrawal of US troops from the region, repeat demands Trump has previously rejected outright.
Partial, selective, and contested
The Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade, remains largely closed. Iran has permitted transit selectively, with two Chinese supertankers, the Yuan Gui Yang and the Ocean Lily, carrying around 4 million barrels of crude exiting the strait on Wednesday. South Korea's foreign minister also confirmed that a Korean tanker had crossed in cooperation with Iran. The moves follow an announcement by Tehran last week, timed to coincide with Trump's summit in Beijing, that it had reached an agreement easing rules for Chinese ships.
Shipping monitor Lloyd's List reported at least 54 vessels transited the strait last week, roughly double the figure from the week before. But that remains a fraction of the approximately 140 ships per day that crossed before the war began on 28 February. The disruption has caused what Reuters described as the biggest interference with global energy supplies in history. Brent crude futures eased about 1.5% on Wednesday to just below $110 a barrel, still well above pre-war levels, and a direct driver of the political pressure now bearing down on Trump at home. US gas prices have risen around 50% since the conflict began, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday showed Trump's approval rating near its lowest point since he returned to the White House, with his handling of the cost-of-living crisis eroding support even among Republicans.
The Senate breaks with the White House
In the clearest sign yet that Republican unity on the war is fracturing, the US Senate voted 50 to 47 on Tuesday to advance a war powers resolution that would force Trump either to end the conflict or seek formal authorisation from Congress to continue it. It was the eighth attempt by Democrats to bring such a measure forward, and the first to succeed.
Four Republicans joined Democrats to push it through: Senators Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who lost his party primary over the weekend after Trump moved against him. Cassidy said the administration had "left Congress in the dark on Operation Epic Fury" and that constituents, including Trump supporters, had expressed concern about the war. Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania was again the sole Democrat to vote against the measure.
The vote came after Trump ignored a statutory 60-day deadline requiring him to seek congressional authorisation to continue combat operations. Even if the resolution passes both chambers, it would face an almost certain presidential veto. Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, who has led the effort, said the political momentum was shifting. "What the president cares about is his own popularity, and when Congress, even including members of his own party, start to vote against him," Kaine said. The Senate is not expected to hold the next procedural vote until after the Memorial Day recess. The House was expected to vote on a similar measure in the coming days, having narrowly defeated one last week on a tie vote.
A secret plan for regime change
Reporting published by the New York Times on Monday added a significant dimension to understanding how the war was conceived and why it has unfolded so differently from the original plan. According to US officials briefed on Israeli operational planning, Israel and the United States went into the conflict intending to install Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's former president known internationally for his denial of the Holocaust and his calls to "wipe Israel off the map," as the leader of a post-war Iranian government.
An Israeli airstrike on the first day of the war, 28 February, targeted Ahmadinejad's home in the Narmak district of eastern Tehran, where he had been living under effective house arrest by the Revolutionary Guards. The strike, according to the officials and an associate of Ahmadinejad, was designed to kill his guards and free him rather than to harm him. He survived but was injured. An Atlantic report from March, citing anonymous associates, described the operation as "in effect a jailbreak." After the near miss, Ahmadinejad became disillusioned with the plan and has not been seen publicly since. His current condition and whereabouts are unknown.
The plan had been developed by the Israelis, and Ahmadinejad had been consulted about it, the Times reported. US officials were divided on its viability: some saw him, by analogy with Venezuela's Delcy Rodriguez after the capture of Nicolás Maduro, as a figure who could manage a post-regime transition while working with Washington. Others were openly sceptical. The White House, asked about the regime change plan, did not address it directly, with spokeswoman Anna Kelly stating only that the military had "met or exceeded all of its objectives."
The broader Israeli plan envisaged the air campaign, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the first day, as the opening stage of a sequence that would include Kurdish forces fighting Iranian troops, influence operations destabilising the regime, and eventually the emergence of what the Israelis called an "alternative government." Little of it played out as planned. Iran's theocratic leadership absorbed the assault without visible collapse. The Times cited Mossad chief David Barnea as telling associates he still believed the plan could have worked had it received full approval to proceed.
Washington pulls back
Away from the Iran theatre, the Trump administration moved on a separate front with significant consequences for European security. Three sources told Reuters that the Pentagon plans to formally notify NATO allies on Friday that it is significantly scaling back the pool of military assets the US would make available to the alliance in the event of a major crisis or conflict. The announcement is to be made at a meeting of defence policy chiefs in Brussels, where the US is expected to be represented by Alex Velez-Green, a senior aide to Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby.
The move involves a framework known as the NATO Force Model, under which member states identify forces that can be activated during a conflict. Colby has stated publicly that the US will continue to provide its nuclear umbrella to NATO members even as it shifts conventional defence responsibilities toward European allies. The announcement follows a decision to cut approximately 5,000 US troops from Europe, including the cancellation of an Army brigade deployment to Poland, a move that drew sharp criticism from US lawmakers. A senior NATO diplomat told Reuters they still believed the US would come to Europe's aid if needed, but the cumulative signals have deepened unease across the alliance. The July NATO summit in Turkey is shaping up as a critical moment, with Colby's team understood to be treating the Force Model adjustment as a key priority heading into that meeting.
