Two polls using different methodologies have reached the same conclusion about Disy’s internal vote for its presidential nomination, with Averof Neophytou holding a clear lead over George Pamborides. The RAI Consultants survey for Alpha, presented on Tuesday evening, gave Neophytou 54% against 20%, while an Explorer survey for Phileleftheros at the end of October had recorded 51% against 28%. The gap between the two findings, and above all the detailed tables, show where the contest of 28 November will be decided and why the two camps are following such different tactics.
Same winner, different margin
The lead stands at 34 points in the Alpha poll and 23 in the Phileleftheros poll. The discrepancy mainly concerns Pamborides, who stands at 20% in one survey and 28% in the other, while Neophytou moves within a narrow range of 51% to 54%. Explorer surveyed 560 Disy voters between 26 and 29 October, immediately after the official submission of candidacies, and recorded party members separately, where the picture was almost identical at 50% against 27%. RAI conducted its survey in two waves, in September and October, with 581 Disy respondents in total, before and after the withdrawal of Annita Demetriou. The distribution of those choosing neither candidate also differs. In the Phileleftheros poll, 11% answer “neither” and 9% are undecided, while in the Alpha poll the undecided reach 12%, 8% say they will not vote and 4% opt for a blank or spoilt ballot.
Turnout as the key
Neophytou’s lead grows as the electorate narrows. Among those who told RAI they will definitely vote, the gap widens to 59% against 24%, while the share of certain voters rose from 56% in September to 60% in October. Among Disy supporters who probably or definitely will not turn out, by contrast, Neophytou falls to 31% and Pamborides to 7%.
Disy’s Christodoulides voters
The biggest divergence between the two surveys concerns Disy supporters who voted for Nikos Christodoulides in the first round in 2023. In the Phileleftheros poll, 47% of them choose Pamborides and just 18% Neophytou, with one in four choosing neither. In the Alpha poll they appear almost evenly split, at 35% against 33%. Both surveys agree that this is Pamborides’ strongest audience, though not on the size of his advantage. On the other side, Neophytou consolidates those who voted for him in 2023, with 63% in the Alpha poll and 58% in the Phileleftheros poll, although 14% and 19% respectively now lean towards his rival.
In the Phileleftheros survey, Neophytou leads in every district, with the widest margins in Paphos, where he takes 67% against 10%, and in Famagusta. Pamborides comes closest in Nicosia, his home district, where the gap narrows to 48% against 33%. In the Alpha poll, Neophytou gathers 69% among those aged 18 to 29, while Pamborides records his best result, 31%, among those aged 50 to 59.
Neophytou's plan
The former party leader’s tactics emerge both from the numbers and from what he has said himself. In a written statement at the end of October, he announced that until the vote he would prioritise contact with members over public debates, which he considers undermine unity. With a lead that grows among certain voters, the task for his campaign is to mobilise supporters in the districts where he is strong and avoid confrontations that would give his rival a platform. The message he keeps repeating is the unity of the party and a change from the current government.
Pamborides' plan
Pamborides, who on the Phileleftheros podcast in early November described the polls as overrated and called for them to be read politically, is trying to shift the debate from who is ahead to who can win the presidential elections. He pursued this line on Tuesday on the FUSE podcast, arguing that Neophytou lost the 2023 elections and will lose the next ones too. The public endorsements he is gathering serve the same aim, despite the moratorium on statements that Disy’s headquarters imposed on party officials. Former deputy president Harris Georgiades spoke on Omega on Tuesday of “overturning the faits accomplis”, and on Wednesday former European Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides wrote that Pamborides can help the party regain its credibility. At the same time, he is keeping open the dividing lines with his rival on GESY and sanctions against Russia.
His main bet is on Disy supporters who voted for Christodoulides and on Nicosia, where the polls give him his best results. The question is how many of them are members with the right to vote and how many will turn out on 28 November.
