The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the current outbreak could reach a scale comparable to – or even exceeding – the deadly West Africa epidemic of 2014–2016, which caused more than 11,000 deaths.
Jason Asher, head of the CDC’s epidemic forecasting and analysis unit, said urgent intervention is required to slow the spread of the virus and prevent a large-scale health crisis. He noted that current epidemiological models indicate the outbreak could develop into a crisis similar to that of a decade ago if strong public health measures are not implemented.
Modelling and worst-case scenarios
The CDC’s updated analysis includes projections based on key factors such as the number of infected individuals identified and isolated.
Experts stressed that the models are not intended to cause alarm but to support decision-making by health authorities. They added that the international community must prepare for the worst-case scenario and mobilise resources on a scale similar to those deployed during the 2014–2016 crisis.
Satish Pillai, who leads the CDC’s operational response to the outbreak, said the true number of infections remains uncertain, although the spread is still believed to be at a relatively early stage.
Rare strain without vaccine
The outbreak is linked to the Bundibugyo strain of the Ebola virus, a rarer variant for which no approved vaccine or targeted treatment currently exists.
It was officially declared on 15 May in the north-east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and marks the country’s 17th recorded Ebola outbreak. Health authorities believe the virus had been circulating for some time before it was formally identified.
Cases in Congo and Uganda
According to the latest data from the World Health Organization, 381 laboratory-confirmed cases have been recorded in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including 64 deaths.
In neighbouring Uganda, 16 confirmed cases and one death have been reported. Seven patients have recovered in the Congo and two in Uganda.
One of the deadliest viruses
Ebola has caused at least 15,000 deaths in Africa over the past five decades. The World Health Organization estimates that its fatality rate can range from 25% to as high as 90%, depending on the strain and response conditions.
The most severe outbreak recorded in the Democratic Republic of the Congo occurred between 2018 and 2020, when nearly 2,300 people died out of around 3,500 confirmed cases.
