Greece is expected to no longer hold the highest debt level in the euro zone by the end of this year, as its debt ratio drops below that of Italy, based on official projections and fiscal plans.
Government officials estimate Greece’s public debt will decline to roughly 137% of gross domestic product in 2026, compared with 145% a year earlier. At the same time, Italy’s debt is forecast to increase to around 138.6% of GDP, up from just over 137% in 2025, according to its medium-term budget outlook.
If confirmed, the change would mark a symbolic shift after years in which Greece consistently recorded the highest debt burden in the currency bloc.
The updated figures are due to be included in Athens’ new multi-year fiscal framework, which is expected to be submitted to the European Commission before the end of April.
Italy’s debt ratio is projected to remain broadly unchanged in the following year before gradually declining towards the end of the decade, the country’s fiscal plan shows.
Greece, which has spent the past decade recovering from a deep financial crisis, has made faster progress in reducing its debt than many of its euro zone peers. Since 2020, its debt ratio has fallen sharply, while Italy’s has decreased at a more moderate pace over the same period.
The downward trend has been supported by economic recovery and active debt management. Authorities also plan to repay approximately €7 billion in loans from the country’s first bailout earlier than scheduled later this year.
The developments reflect a broader rebalancing within the euro area, where debt dynamics are increasingly diverging between member states.
Source: Reuters