Marine Le Pen remains the frontrunner ahead of France’s presidential election, while far-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon places second in most of the scenarios tested by a new poll.
The findings highlight the growing polarisation of the French electorate as President Emmanuel Macron’s second and final term draws to a close.
Le Pen maintains commanding lead
Le Pen would secure between 33% and 36% of the first-round vote, depending on the scenario tested by polling company Toluna Harris Interactive. The survey was conducted from 8 to 10 September.
Mélenchon, the candidate of the far-left France Unbowed party, known as LFI, would advance to the second round in at least three of the five scenarios examined. He ties for second place in a fourth scenario.
However, the poll indicates that Le Pen would comfortably defeat Mélenchon in a second-round contest.
Philippe challenges Mélenchon
Macron’s former prime minister, Édouard Philippe, is the only centre-right candidate to lead Mélenchon in one of the scenarios tested and draw level with him in another.
All other potential centre-right candidates trail Mélenchon in every scenario.
France approaches post-Macron era
As Macron’s presidency nears its conclusion, he leaves behind a severely weakened political centre and a struggling economy, creating further space for parties such as LFI and Le Pen’s National Rally.
Mélenchon has already contested three presidential elections, in 2012, 2017 and 2022, but has never reached the second round.
Le Pen has also stood three times. She advanced to the run-off in both 2017 and 2022 but was defeated by Macron on each occasion.
Source: AMNA
