A strong, and possibly very strong, El Niño episode could develop later this year, according to KITAS Weather, with current climate model estimates pointing to a significant warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between November 2026 and January 2027.
Sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical Pacific were below average from August 2025 to February 2026. However, from early February, temperatures began rising above average in the eastern tropical Pacific, before remaining near or above average across the central and eastern Pacific from mid-April.
According to KITAS Weather, several major forecasting centres now indicate further warming in the coming months. Some models suggest the coming episode could become one of the strongest El Niño events recorded in recent decades. Only three very strong El Niño episodes have been recorded since 1950, in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, with the 2015-16 event currently considered the strongest.
KITAS Weather notes that the term “Super El Niño”, often used in media coverage, is not formally recognised by the meteorological community, even though the developing event may prove to be among the most significant since official records began.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a recurring but irregular climate pattern involving changes in winds and sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific. The phenomenon has two main phases: El Niño, the warm phase, and La Niña, the cool phase. These episodes usually last between nine and 12 months, often developing between June and August, peaking between December and April, and weakening between May and July.
In neutral conditions, trade winds blow from east to west along the equator, pushing warm surface waters towards the western Pacific. Cooler water then rises near the coast of South America. During El Niño, those trade winds weaken or sometimes reverse, allowing warmer waters to spread across much of the central and eastern tropical Pacific. This shifts rainfall patterns and atmospheric pressure systems, affecting weather in several parts of the world.
Where the effects are strongest
El Niño and La Niña have their clearest impacts in parts of North and South America, Australia, the tropical Pacific, south-east Asia and Africa. The effects can include warmer, drier or wetter conditions, depending on the region and the phase of the ENSO cycle. For Europe, the link is far less direct. KITAS Weather says Europe is thousands of kilometres from the tropical Pacific, meaning any influence is indirect and can be outweighed by other atmospheric factors, including the Atlantic jet stream and wider pressure patterns.
Cyprus impact expected to be weak
For Cyprus, the effect is even more limited. KITAS Weather says there is generally no strong correlation between Cyprus weather and the different phases of ENSO.
The island’s weather is influenced more by pressure systems over the Atlantic and Europe, blocking patterns, the position and strength of the subtropical and polar jet streams, cut-off disturbances in the middle troposphere and other regional factors. As a result, while El Niño is an important driver of global climate patterns, its influence on Cyprus is considered weak and is usually overshadowed by atmospheric conditions across Europe and the Mediterranean.
Global temperatures could rise further
KITAS Weather also notes that many of the world’s warmest years have coincided with El Niño events. This warming effect now occurs on top of the longer-term rise in global temperatures driven by human-caused climate change.
According to the UK Met Office, El Niño can add about one-fifth of a degree Celsius to the average global temperature by transferring heat from the ocean into the atmosphere. The 1998 El Niño helped make that year the warmest on record at the time. However, KITAS Weather notes that even recent cooler La Niña years have been warmer than strong El Niño years in the past, reflecting the extent to which the baseline global climate has changed. With another El Niño developing, the next year could again test or exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, according to meteorologists cited by KITAS Weather.
