A political earthquake has shaken the Turkish Cypriot community following the sweeping victory of Tufan Erhürman in last Sunday’s elections. The three coalition parties that backed Ersin Tatar are reeling from their candidate’s crushing defeat, while the parties supporting Erhürman are poised to capitalise on the outcome.
Introspection within the UBP
The National Unity Party (UBP), from which Tatar hails, has entered a phase of internal turmoil, with several senior figures calling for an emergency congress. No one wants to shoulder the blame for Tatar’s loss, placing party leader Ünal Üstel in a difficult position.
Tatar, for his part, blamed his coalition partners, questioning where the votes of the ruling alliance had gone, given that they collectively received 52% in the previous elections, while he garnered only 35.81% last Sunday.
UBP's Resmiye Canaltay, daughter of former Turkish Cypriot leader Derviş Eroğlu, said the party should convene an extraordinary congress. Her call irritated Üstel loyalists, who anonymously told Turkish Cypriot media that self-criticism should not turn into an internal power struggle. Some also accused certain UBP members of having secretly supported Erhürman.
Reports suggest that members of the Eroğlu family in Famagusta backed Erhürman, a notable twist given that Derviş Eroğlu once served as president of the UBP. With several rival factions operating inside the party, UBP’s future appears unpredictable.
Early elections on the horizon
The president of the Rebirth Party (YDP - Yeniden Doğuş Partisi) and Erhan Arıklı, sought to interpret the results by claiming that voters neither rejected the two-state solution nor endorsed federation, but rather expressed frustration with the current leadership. He therefore called for early elections to be held in the first quarter of 2026.
Political analyst Kemal Baykallı told Politis that Erhürman received more than 50% of the vote in the Karpasia region, traditionally a stronghold for right-wing voters of Turkish origin. He predicted a major internal struggle within the YDP in the coming months.
Democratic Party under pressure
The coalition Democratic Party (DP - Demokrat Parti) is also entering a period of crisis, facing competition from the newly formed TAM Party (Social Innovation Party) founded by Serdar Denktaş. During the elections, Denktaş backed Erhürman, aligning himself with the winning side. According to Baykallı, TAM is now likely to siphon off a significant share of DP voters, setting the stage for another political showdown.
Attention is also turning to the Republican Turkish Party (CTP - Cumhuriyetçi Türk Partisi), where Erhürman is expected to step down as leader as he assumes his new role as Turkish Cypriot leader. An internal election will follow, with three names already circulating: Erkut Şahali, the current CTP Secretary-General; Asım Akansoy, former Secretary-General; and Sıla Usar İncirli, MP and daughter of former Secretary-General Naci Talat Usar.