Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense in Cyprus, as elsewhere in the world, raising both health risks and productivity losses for workers, according to a new study by the Cyprus Institute. The researchers noted that last June's heatwave in the United Kingdom alone caused an estimated economic loss of more than £1 billion, underlining the scale of the risk.
Researchers combined climate and biological data to calculate physical heat stress indicators across different levels of work intensity and sun exposure. They identified outdoor workers in the construction, agriculture and tourism sectors as those most likely to be affected as temperatures continue to rise.
Combining these projected physical impacts with economic data, the study estimates that lost economic output due to hotter working conditions could reach €101 million in 2030, equivalent to 0.4% of GDP, and €303 million in 2050, equivalent to 0.7% of GDP. Cumulative economic losses through to 2050 could reach between €2.3 billion and €3.8 billion in 2023 values, or 0.5% of Cyprus's GDP over that period, if no further adaptation measures are introduced in workplaces.
Professor Theodoros Zachariades, one of the study's authors, said the research is the first to use Cypriot data to estimate the economic damage caused by lost working hours due to extreme heat. He noted that while indoor workplaces are largely protected by air conditioning, the cost to the economy will still be significant as very hot days become more intense and more frequent in the coming years.
Zachariades added that although most European countries may face greater overall losses in labour productivity due to climate change, since their indoor workplaces are less well adapted to heat, the impact on Cyprus's most exposed and vulnerable outdoor workers could also be severe, and will require adaptation measures to monitor and protect workers' health and performance.
