Fuel prices in Cyprus could rise by 30% to 40% in the coming weeks, according to energy expert Charles Ellinas, who said developments in the oil market depend heavily on the statements and decisions of US President Donald Trump.
Ellinas, Senior Associate and Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, said oil markets remain highly volatile. The price of Brent crude recently surged to around $120 per barrel following statements suggesting the war could continue, before dropping again to $91–$94 per barrel after the US president indicated that objectives had “almost been achieved”.
He warned that if the conflict continues for several weeks, oil prices could climb again above $120 per barrel and, in an extreme scenario, could even approach $150 per barrel. However, he noted that such a development would likely require a complete disruption of oil exports from the Middle East, which he described as unlikely.
Increases expected with next fuel imports
Ellinas said that for Cyprus the impact on pump prices will likely appear once new fuel shipments arrive. At present, the average price of petrol stands at €1.347 per litre, while diesel is priced at €1.461 per litre.
He explained that price increases are expected to begin appearing either this week or next, once existing fuel stocks are depleted. “They have not increased yet, but I believe this week or the next they will, because the current stocks will run out,” he said.
Attacks on energy infrastructure increasing uncertainty
Ellinas also warned that attacks on energy infrastructure are increasing uncertainty in global markets. If oil refineries or natural gas and LNG facilities are damaged, he said, it could take two to three weeks for them to resume operations.
As an example, he cited an LNG production facility in Qatar that recently suspended operations and is expected to require several weeks before restarting. Some estimates suggest production could remain affected until the end of the year, which could have significant consequences for global energy prices and the wider economy.
Political pressure growing in the United States
At the same time, Ellinas noted that pressure is also increasing within the United States. Petrol prices there have risen by around 20%, while stock markets are experiencing volatility, increasing pressure on President Trump to bring the crisis to an end, particularly in view of upcoming political developments in the country.
However, he added that developments also depend on the position of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who remains committed to continuing the confrontation with Iran, further contributing to uncertainty in global energy markets.
Source: CNA