Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman was already contending with the largest disruption to global oil supplies in modern history. Now he faces a crisis of a different kind: the sudden departure of one of OPEC's most consequential members.
The United Arab Emirates, a member of the organisation since its Abu Dhabi emirate joined in 1967, announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ framework, citing "national interests." The exit took effect on 1 May, freeing Abu Dhabi from production quota constraints and opening the way for it to expand output from around 3.4 million barrels per day to a target of 5 million barrels per day by 2027. The UAE did not consult Saudi Arabia or any other member before announcing the move.
The departure lands at a particularly fraught moment. The Iran war has hobbled Gulf crude exports and blocked producers from deploying the spare capacity normally used to stabilise markets in times of crisis. As Reuters reported, Prince Abdulaziz, widely known by his initials ABS, now faces both the largest oil supply disruption on record and a structural fracture within the alliance he has sought to dominate.
Production increases
ABS, 66, is the first royal to serve as Saudi energy minister and draws his authority from his position as half-brother to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's de facto ruler. That political backing has allowed him to run OPEC+ in a manner his predecessors could not.
He waged and won a price war with Russia in 2020 after Moscow initially refused production cuts as pandemic demand collapsed, later saying of the standoff: "It was an issue of to be or not to be, who is the boss of this sector." He repeatedly defied calls from former US President Joe Biden for production increases. In 2022, OPEC granted him unprecedented powers as chairman to call meetings at any time.
But that authority has come at the cost of internal consultation. Two OPEC+ delegates told Reuters that Saudi officials now typically inform ministers from smaller member states of agreed decisions the day before meetings, with calls to the broader group lasting less than half an hour in total. The organisation's technical expert assessments have also been sidelined since late 2022, with decisions passed directly to ministers. "We appreciate what His Royal Highness is doing for the oil price," one delegate said, speaking on condition of anonymity, while acknowledging the diminished space for debate.
A rivalry years in the making
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have increasingly competed over economic issues and regional politics, and the Saudi-UAE coalition that had fought Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels since 2015 broke down in acrimony in late December when Saudi Arabia bombed what it described as a weapons shipment bound for UAE-backed Yemeni separatists.
Inside OPEC, the tension had been building for years. In 2021, Abu Dhabi demanded a higher output quota and only accepted a deal after airing its grievances publicly. "It is unreasonable to accept further injustice and sacrifice. We have been patient," UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said at the time. The UAE did eventually secure a quota boost, but the concessions were not enough to hold it.
Before the war began, the UAE's production capacity had grown to 4.8 million barrels per day, but under its OPEC agreement it was only permitted to produce 3.2 million barrels per day. According to Jim Krane, a fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute, the frustration was longstanding: "The UAE has been chafing inside OPEC for years and never got a fair hearing over its quota. So now the chickens have come home to roost."
The post-war calculation
Analysts say the UAE's departure is unlikely to have an immediate market impact while the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, since its exports are constrained regardless of quota. But the picture could change significantly once the conflict ends. Energy strategist Kingsmill Bond of the think tank Ember Future argues that the UAE is preparing for a post-war environment in which oil demand is in decline and OPEC's capacity to enforce discipline will weaken, and is therefore seeking to maximise output before energy markets move beyond fossil fuels. That calculation stands in direct opposition to Saudi Arabia's strategy of capping production to sustain higher prices over the long term.
Experts also note that Washington will welcome the move for its potential to curtail OPEC's pricing power, and that the UAE's exit opens the door for other members to follow. For ABS, the question is no longer whether the UAE will comply with his production targets. It is whether OPEC can remain a credible force without Abu Dhabi inside it.