Sunday’s elections in the north, to choose the next leader of the Turkish Cypriot community, will inevitably affect efforts to resolve the Cyprus problem. They cannot, therefore, be treated with indifference or dismissal by anyone.
This is because whoever leads the Turkish Cypriot community, no matter how dependent they may be on Ankara, remains the Republic of Cyprus’ formal interlocutor, the person who shapes public opinion among Turkish Cypriots and, crucially, the person whom Turkey cannot simply ignore or sideline if they refuse to be controlled. The case of Mustafa Akıncı is characteristic: no matter how much Ankara tried, it failed to fully subjugate him on the Cyprus issue.
In that sense, it matters greatly whether, after the election, Ersin Tatar or Tufan Erhürman emerges as the leader of the Turkish Cypriot community.
If Tatar is re-elected, the Cyprus issue will remain stuck in deadlock, while the UN-led process is expected to lose momentum and could eventually be abandoned altogether. His victory would signal that the Turkish Cypriot community has firmly embraced the two-state model, effectively shutting the door on any renewed push for a federal solution by either side or the international community.
By contrast, an Erhürman victory would offer Cyprus and the peace process another chance. It wouldn’t mean an immediate breakthrough, but under the right conditions, the opposition leader could help shift the island’s current deadlock toward a more hopeful path.
The crucial test will be whether he stays true to his current pledges once in office. Erhürman will need to remain committed to a bizonal, bicommunal federation, return to the negotiating table, and engage sincerely in talks that protect the legitimate interests of both Greek and Turkish Cypriots within a reunited Cyprus. As opposition leader, he has shown belief in this vision and a willingness to pursue it. If elected, he will have to prove it through actions, not words.
At the same time, Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides must also prove that his repeated declarations of readiness for an “honest, sincere, and realistic” negotiation were not just empty words dictated by Tatar’s intransigence. He must show the genuine political will to reach a fair and viable settlement of the Cyprus problem.
If our Turkish Cypriot compatriots succeed in removing the pro–two-state advocate Ersin Tatar from leadership, and if both Christodoulides and Erhürman stay true to their commitments, they could become the leaders who reunite Cyprus. If, on the other hand, they prove unreliable or inconsistent, they will inevitably co-sign the island’s definitive partition.