The Turkish Cypriot community is holding elections tomorrow which may trigger developments if moderate Tufan Erhürman is elected. President Christodoulides however spent the entire week preoccupied with how to promote and project his attendance of the Sharm El Sheikh Peace Summit on Gaza. He’s all about persuading that he’s playing a role but not considering anything productive to break the 8-year impasse on the Cyprus issue.
Christodoulides did indeed succeed in getting invited to last Monday's Summit. Netanyahu, who obviously could not attend, made all the arrangements, namely asking Trump that the international character of the conference be symbolically strengthened with leaders friendly to Israel.
The Cyprus President squandered this honourary invitation all by himself however, claiming he found the opportunity to exchange views with Trump on the Cyprus issue inside 30 seconds-that’s how long their handshake and photo opportunity lasted.
Handshake and Initiative
Public opinion didn't believe him of course, but did not deter him from curbing exaggerations about his role in the Middle East. In remarks at Sharm el-Sheikh (13/10) he disclosed the presentation of an initiative at the conference, ‘made up of 6 proposals in 3 areas: security, reconstruction, and humanitarian assistance, within the framework of the Trump plan.’
He did not provide any details and on his return to the island (15/10) he became very annoyed and at the criticism over his Gaza initiative and the Trump photo op, to which he responded.
"This is neither wishful thinking nor PR," he insisted, and accused "those expressing malicious criticism": ‘It's our country, the Republic of Cyprus that is being heard, it's our country that is being credited, it's our country that is being upgraded.’
Christodoulides was caught off guard by a barrage of mocking comments. What could he really have proposed on the Gaza reconstruction? During his tenure, the most significant construction and energy projects on the island have been suspended, others are experiencing major delays, and yet more are the subject of a corruption investigation by the European Public Prosecutor's Office.
Security
What could Christodoulides really offer as a proposal on Gaza security when his own problem at home has remained unsolved for 51 years?
In an extensive BBC analysis (14/10), Jeremy Bowen aptly raised the thorny questions of the Gaza day after.
He even questioned the leading figure of Sharm el-Sheikh: "Trump's role in Gaza ceasefire was decisive, but not a roadmap to peace." The BBC correspondent noted that the ceasefire bears four signatures, including Egypt's Sisi, Turkey's Erdoğan, and the Emir of Qatar.
The BBC doesn't broadcast news to promote the United Kingdom when the country simply did not have any role this particular time around. It focuses on the facts and the signatories, makes the correlations and brings to the fore, the enormous security and reconstruction problems.
In Cyprus, it's a different story. Christodoulides believes he's entitled to self-promotion and has the expectation that no one is going to ask what exactly he’s pursuing and why he is brutally mocking public opinion. It’s clear that he’s gotten used to directing information flow and demands mere regurgitation, a transponder. Everything chewed without scrutiny.
The Jerusalem Post, however, wrote that Christodoulides was also planning to travel to Israel last Wednesday to meet with Netanyahu. That day, Netanyahu was supposed to appear in court for the corruption charges he faces. To avoid the attendance, he invoked "urgent diplomatic meetings," and the one with Christodoulides was scheduled shortly before the court session. However, his judges conveyed that he should appear on Thursday after all. The "urgent meeting" was postponed because, apparently, it could not prove useful.
Reality
Christodoulides inundates television networks every night with notions of "virtual" diplomacy about Cyprus's role as a pillar of stability in the Middle East. In practice, he's covering up serious problems in efforts at reaching a settlement of the Cyprus issue, as well as other complications plaguing the country, including energy. Deadlocks remain and dilemmas multiply. It’s very likely they will all crowd before him before the end of his term.
An immediate example is the intensive consultation on SAFE, which concerns, among other things, Turkey's participation—a third country but a NATO member—in EU defence armaments programmes.
As a decision is imminent in late November, Cyprus and Greece find themselves under pressure by a strong majority: Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, and Scandinavian countries favour Turkish participation. Other Central Europeans are impatient.
"We understand your sensitivities, but..."
In the end, there may be no one at the table to support Christodoulides and Mitsotakis.
Further to this, Nicosia also took a warning shot from the Germans and the Dutch not to renew the restrictive measures the EU has applied since 2019 to officials of the Turkish TPAO for unauthorized activities then in the Eastern Mediterranean.
European Agenda
The EU landscape is becoming murky for Christodoulides, who very much wants to "sell" public opinion the upcoming EU Council Presidency merits.
Accession to the Schengen Zone raises questions in Brussels because the Green Line is not an "external border." The UN is moving in precisely the opposite direction of implementing controls that de facto amount to borders.
Aligned with the European Commission, the UN is exerting pressure to open new crossing points and strengthen bi-communal trade across the Green Line.
A possible election of Tufan Erhürman could place Christodoulides in a much more difficult position. His handling of these issues is completely incomprehensible to the EU. Among other things, the Trump administration has not yet approved visa-free entry for Cypriot citizens to the US, and Nicosia will need to wait another year for re-evaluation.
Countdown
Geopolitical developments in Europe and the Middle East significantly affect Cyprus, and the countdown is on.
European partners are striving to adapt to pressing security needs. Turkish diplomacy seems more ready than ever to maximise its benefits. Turkey is already part of the Ukraine Coalition of the Willing and possesses enormous defense capabilities, cutting-edge technologies in weapons systems.
With its large army, it stands ready to participate in security and stability forces.
European partners may listen sympathetically to the sensitivities of Cyprus and Greece, but at some point, they will inevitably reach a decision. Mitsotakis is looking for something in exchange for lifting the casus belli, but he knows full well that the only path is The Hague.
Christodoulides wants vague "progress" on the Cyprus issue, but forgets that he’s found himself at the last mile and is still isn't saying anything concrete. As long as those most directly concerned don't take the initiative, the institutional capabilities they have in the EU may very well evaporate. Instead of forging permanent solutions, they're playing a game of secondary trophies and risk being left on the sidelines.