On October 19, the ballot box will determine who will be the next Turkish-Cypriot leader, sitting on equal terms with President Christodoulides at the UN table.
As the election campaign intensifies, the possible election of center-left candidate Tufan Erhürman and what that entails, is being studied under the microscope of directly interested parties - the Greek Cypriots and the UN.
October 19 is an important timeline for António Guterres in efforts to accelerate steps towards progress and resumption of settlement talks, but also to decide what he will do if Tufan Erhürman is elected. It has already been announced a new informal five party meeting (2 communities plus 3 guarantor powers) will convene sometime in November. This is a substantial development.
Marginal Differences
The question is whether the center-left moderate candidate will succeed! Erhürman intends to restore federal reunification as the basis for negotiations.
Unlike his opponent Ersin Tatar who demands state recognition, Erhürman believes that a federation will allow the T/C community to secure its interests as co-founder of the Republic of Cyprus. He also shares the view that Cyprus's EU accession is an achievement for his community too, not just for Greek Cypriots.
Progressive Turkish Cypriots fought for accession within the framework of settlement efforts, with completion pending since 2004, as Protocol 10 of the Accession Treaty provides that in case of a settlement, the European acquis will automatically extend to the entire territory of Cyprus.
"The time has come to speak, to raise our voice, to say that we exist. (If I am elected) they will know that I am a partner in everything on this island. I am a partner in Pafos, in Limassol and in Larnaca," Erhürman said at an election rally (23/9) in Nicosia.
The Erhürman approach breaks the monotonous narrative of the G/C leadership that has dominated in recent years. Nicos Christodoulides belongs to that faction of politicians who downplay the "Turkish Cypriot" factor: "what does it matter if his interlocutor is Erhürman, Akıncı and Talat, Turkey is the one calling the shots." This is however a clearly delusional position! If the Greek-Cypriot leadership continues on this vein and the center-left Turkish-Cypriot politician manages to get elected, it will find itself facing surprises.
Difficult Balance
Erhürman operates in a very challenging environment, after 8 years of stagnation. He only leads by a whisker in the polls and the chances of securing 51% of voters are marginal. In the three weeks remaining, he walks on a tightrope. Turkey has firmly and unequivocally changed its rhetoric to the 'no going back' hard line of the two state solution, following the collapse of talks at Crans-Montana in 2017.
This approach was reiterated by Erdogan's most recent address of the UNGA, arguing (23/9) that "the federal model in Cyprus has been tested many times, but failed due to the intransigent stance of the Greek Cypriot side." This declared policy - which the current Turkish-Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar expresses at the UN table - can however be modified by Turkey, if perceived as inflexible, as the G/C leadership often denounces, this too may prove to be a delusion.
Political Equality
The reality is that Turkish diplomacy since 2017 has focused all its forces on the perceived credibility deficit of the Greek-Cypriot leadership (Anastasiades, now Christodoulides) regarding their sincere will for federal settlement. Speaking from a written text prepared by diplomats, Erdoğan mentioned at the General Assembly that "Turkish Cypriots are equal owners of the island and will never accept being a minority."
Along this line, if Erhürman is elected, he will meet with Erdoğan, without necessarily finding himself in ruptures with him. "I tell Mr. Christodoulides that he should not believe he will make the political equality of Turkish Cypriots a negotiating card. He should not believe that we will renegotiate issues on which we have agreed 50 times...," said the center-left Turkish Cypriot.
Unprepared
Therefore, Turkey may give Erhürman room to handle the Cyprus issue and give one more chance to federation. The Greek-Cypriot leadership appears prepared, but often examines Turkish policy dogmatically. This is known as a "sufferer" by Christodoulides' confidential advisor, former ambassador Tasos Tzionis.
Based on the delusion that the Turkish side would remain immovable, Tassos Papadopoulos suffered a cold shower in February 2004 and subsequently sought a lifeline from... Denktaş to jointly reject the Annan Plan. In the end he dragged the G/C community into "resounding rejection" with the result that, to a large extent in the ensuing couple of decades, Turkey has been exonerated in the Cyprus issue, without withdrawing a single soldier, without returning a millimeter of territory.
But Christodoulides was also witness to the same delusion. In 2016 Nicos Anastasiades did not calculate that Akıncı would have the strength to push negotiations to the final stage, with a plethora of convergences and submission of a map on the territorial issue. Erdoğan disagreed, but Akıncı insisted on a percentage acceptable to G/Cs. Thus Anastasiades went to five-party Conferences with no room to escape. In the last gasp, he ended up proposing a two state solution to Çavuşoğlu "in secret talks!
The possible election of Erhürman will very likely shift the burden of pressure onto Christodoulides to clarify his position, simply put, what he means in relation to what was agreed up to Crans-Montana. Such issues might include the explicit acceptance of political equality in the way it was agreed to be implemented for the effective participation of T/Cs in the governance system: first, rotating presidency with unified election and weighting of the G/C - T/C vote, and second, introduction of the rule of "one Turkish Cypriot vote" for forming majority decisions in the Council of Ministers and other executive bodies.
In conclusion, efforts to resume Cyprus talks are very likely to develop differently if Erhürman is elected. Christodoulides is mistaken in his complacent denunciatory tone that only lends a happy ear to his domestic audience. Turkish diplomacy is now in a position to proclaim maximum demands for Cyprus to achieve its intermediate goal of lifting T/C isolation. "The international community must end the unjust and inhumane isolation to which Turkish Cypriots have been subjected for half a century," Erdoğan, calling for the recognition of the 'TRNC'."
In the event that the G/C leadership is left exposed again, the relaxation of the Turkish Cypriot isolation regime may imperatively enter the agenda. On this point, Erhürman meets Erdoğan again. They agree that if talks resume, this time they will not be "open-ended." On the contrary, they should be conducted in the way that Secretary-General António Guterres also suggested: "not endless" and "result-oriented."
Erhürman insists that in case that responsibility for failure weighs on the G/C leadership, then Turkish Cypriots should emerge from isolation and establish direct commercial relations with the world. "Christodoulides should be ready, the will of the Turkish Cypriot people for solution will be on the table," he declares, being aware that his voters, even the most ardent supporters of reunification, no longer trust any Greek-Cypriot leader.