Developments on the ground based on the Trump Plan are coming at a rapid pace. The conditions set by the American President for the 20-point plan to work are, under complex circumstances, ambitious but achievable. The time has come to break the vicious cycle of brutal war between Israel and Hamas. If this happens, permanent peace may be sought in the medium term. What are the lessons that Cyprus can draw from this initiative, and how could it leverage this new situation?
The Trump Plan Framework
In the Trump Plan, the timelines for the most important security and transition provisions are not clarified. They depend on what happens during implementation and are based on the sincere intentions of the leading players. But the strong involvement of the US, the commitment of Arab countries, and international support and monitoring provide significant guarantees for the plan to move forward and de-escalate the Middle East.
Trump's ultimatum to Hamas, the terms that entail the complete neutralisation of all forms of terrorism, as well as the immediate handover of hostages, removed Israel's pretexts. Particularly and specifically those of Benjamin Netanyahu, who continued unrestrained with his own political calculations and the mass punishment of Gaza's population with the ultimate aim of its annihilation. Following the Israeli strike in Doha, US relations with the Arab world were put at risk. The international community could no longer tolerate Netanyahu. European democracies played a major role, becoming deeply involved.
The provision for non-displacement of Palestinians, immediate unhindered humanitarian aid, and reconstruction planning, together with the declarative reference to recognition of a Palestinian state, offer a last chance for peace. As the plan states: "conditions may finally shape a credible path for self-determination and the creation of a Palestinian state entity."
Can a New Beginning Be Made?
The answer is not easy. Whatever happens internationally, developments primarily concern those directly affected. Leveraging the international opportunity is linked to internal developments in Israel and Netanyahu's removal. It also depends on whether the Palestinian Authority can prove its capable of reform and become a credible interlocutor, expressing true people's will. Palestinians in particular must reflect on what they lost 30 years ago. They will do it now, forcibly amid ruins, from a much worse position and starting point.
First Lesson for Cyprus
This is the first significant lesson for Cypriots, considering that they additionally managed to operate with time at their disposal and have multiple opportunities to take fate into their own hands, without being exposed to the brink of catastrophe. The issue for Cyprus is that time is equally precious for them too, when it comes to irreversible conditions on the ground.
So far, developments in Gaza don't seem to greatly move Cyprus's leadership under Nikos Christodoulides, who seeks a geopolitical role in the Middle East through others' destruction and misery. It would be much more productive for his leadership to analyse the options it has in playing a role in the Middle East peace prospects, rather than playing with fire.
In the aftermath of positive developments for Gaza, it's worth Cypriots thinking about changing the paradigm: from a problem of division and geopolitical rivalries to showing the prospect of "peace-coexistence." This diptych fits perfectly for Cyprus, the island's two communities, solving their problem, and the impact such a development would have on Greco-Turkish relations and Europe's interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. This should be the dominant narrative of Cyprus's foreign policy in the region: to make the island a contributor to stability.
Second Lesson: Stop Reproducing the Past
The second lesson for Cypriots is to stop reproducing what traps them in the past. The Cyprus problem remains an issue with real differences between the parties, but not unbridgeable ones. By its nature, the Cyprus issue is significantly milder compared to the Palestinian one, which separated people with rivers of blood and hatred. More than 60 thousand people have died in the Gaza war.
Cyprus is a modern state, an EU member, co-founded by the island's two communities, who recognise and accept each other. Under such a spectre, Cypriots can turn the page, leaving behind the past and demagoguery. The adjustments required in a reunification agreement are not difficult and, based on the most recent negotiations, are guaranteed by the EU at all stages of their implementation. People will be able to normalise their lives in a normal, modern state, with similar, if not identical, social customs.
Cyprus Is Only a Breath Away from Peace
The Trump Plan clearly shows that great effort will be needed for the Middle East to find the path to peace. Under certain conditions, Cyprus is only a breath away from peace, if it truly pursues it. Cypriots are experiencing the prolongation of a problem that should have been solved many years ago. The UN has confirmed that in 2017, all elements for achieving a strategic agreement were on the table. There are no aspects of the problem that haven't been exhaustively discussed. Most pending issues find solutions that make an agreement viable and mutually acceptable. Conversely, the strategic impasse of recent years, if it continues, tends to overturn what has been achieved, causing serious tensions and a confrontational situation.
The Role of International Actors
The peace plan for Gaza was developed by Trump and bears the seal of the US, which exercises maximum influence and power politics in the Middle East. In Cyprus's case, the required international intervention is different. The UN sets the framework for the negotiation process, that presupposes the strong will of the Cypriots themselves. No one has their finger on the trigger, no one is issuing ultimatums.
The EU has been at Cypriots' disposal for 21 years. It can activate institutions, develop policies, and mobilise the appropriate tools for Cyprus to build peace. It's enough to create the right connections for mutual benefits for Cyprus and Turkey within the framework of an upgraded EU-Turkish relationship. Undoubtedly, the US will also need to be activated. In recent years, Americans have been distanced and adapted to the conditions of de facto division.
Cyprus Must Take Initiative
Much of what can be done primarily concerns Cyprus, that has the ability to take the initiative and provoke real interest, giving momentum to the UN's effort. The hope that Gaza generates is a new basis on which Nicosia could exercise inventive diplomacy. To regain the attention of its international interlocutors, speaking the language of common European interests, cooperation, and stability.