A new opinion poll broadcast by Omega on Thursday evening, conducted by Pulse on a sample of 1,000 completed interviews, confirms a tight contest between Disy and Akel for first place in the parliamentary elections now one month away, while also pointing to a deeply fragmented political landscape that could produce a dysfunctional parliament with few viable coalition options.
The survey captures a mood of broad public disillusionment. When asked about the direction of affairs in Cyprus, 68% of respondents said the country is heading in the wrong direction, while only 15% believe it is moving in the right direction. Satisfaction with the outgoing parliament is similarly bleak: 78% say they are not at all satisfied or not particularly satisfied with its work, while just 18% describe themselves as very or fairly satisfied.
The party standings
On voting intentions, Disy leads with 17%, followed closely by Akel on 16%. Elam comes third on 11%. Alma, the reformist movement founded by former Auditor General Odysseas Michaelides, places fourth with 9.5%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous Pulse measurement. Direct Democracy of Cyprus follows with 7%, and Diko with 6%. Volt records 3.5%, putting it on track to enter the new parliament. Edek and the Ecologists' Movement each register 2.5%.
Seat projections and the spectre of dysfunction
Pulse modelled three scenarios for parliamentary seat distribution, based on between six and eight parties entering the House, as well as a scenario with as many as ten parties represented. Across all three scenarios, the poll's headline finding is consistent: there is a significant probability that the incoming parliament will have dysfunctional characteristics, with potentially unworkable coalition arithmetic.
On the question of who is expected to win the election outright, 58% of respondents predict Disy will come first, while 16% expect an Akel victory. Alma is third on this measure, with 9% of respondents predicting it will take first place.