The war in Iran is unlikely to end soon, according to international relations expert Charalambos Chrysostomou, who says the conflict is turning into a war of endurance with no diplomatic initiative currently on the table.
Speaking to the Cyprus News Agency (CNA), Chrysostomou said Iran continues to show resilience despite the military strikes it has suffered, while the objectives set by the United States and Israel have not yet been achieved.
He also noted that the reactions of European countries indicate a growing effort to assert a more independent stance from the United States.
“The fact that Greek, French and Spanish forces are arriving in the region, partly citing the security of Cyprus, essentially forms an informal European shield and demonstrates an effort by Europe to distance itself and act more independently from the United States,” he said.
A conflict that may last longer than expected
Chrysostomou said the conflict is unlikely to end quickly, even though early optimistic predictions suggested the war could last two to three weeks. “Iran appears capable of sustaining the conflict despite the strikes and the decapitation of part of its leadership,” he said.
According to the analyst, Tehran has already appointed a new leader who is described as more hardline than his predecessor and who maintains control over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. “At this stage there is no ground and no initiative for negotiations,” he added.
Objectives set by Washington remain unmet
Chrysostomou also argued that the main objectives set by US President Donald Trump have not yet been achieved. The first objective was the collapse of the Iranian regime, something that has not occurred. The second objective was the destruction of Iran’s ballistic missile programme. However, Iran continues to launch missiles and retains the capacity to strike targets. The third objective involved dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme, which has not yet been directly targeted. “Taking into account that none of these goals has been achieved to a decisive degree, it is clear that the conflict still has a long way to run,” he said.
He explained that the war is unfolding on two parallel fronts of endurance. On one level, Iran is attempting to maintain its ability to launch missiles and drones until its stockpiles are exhausted or its launch infrastructure is destroyed. On another level, the conflict is becoming an economic war, testing how long the United States and other countries can withstand the economic and energy pressures created by the conflict.
Political and economic pressure on the United States
Chrysostomou noted that several countries are already facing significant economic pressures due to the war.
He also warned that political pressure could increase inside the United States. “The pressure in the United States will not only be economic but also political. A significant portion of public opinion already disagrees with this war, including some Republican voters,” he said.
Three groups of countries shaping the conflict
According to Chrysostomou, the international response can be understood through three main groups of countries. The first group includes the BRICS countries, particularly Russia and China, which maintain strong economic and political ties with Iran.
Although both countries have condemned the US and Israeli strikes as illegal under international law, Chrysostomou said they do not intend to become directly involved in the conflict. “They may support Iran indirectly, for example through intelligence sharing, but they are not willing to enter the war militarily,” he said. At the same time, neither Moscow nor Beijing wants to see the Iranian regime collapse and be replaced by a pro-Western government, given the strategic and economic interests at stake.
Gulf states drawn into the conflict
The second group consists of the Sunni Gulf states, which have effectively been drawn into the conflict after being targeted by Iranian strikes. Chrysostomou said relations between these countries and Iran have now become openly hostile and could lead to stronger cooperation between Gulf states and Israel after the war.
Europe seeking greater autonomy
The third group includes the European Union countries, which the analyst said are showing signs of distancing themselves from the United States. “For the first time we see that European countries, including NATO members, are not fully aligned with Washington,” he said.
He noted that Spain has openly expressed its disagreement, while France has deployed forces to the region in coordination with other European states but not to participate in strikes against Iran. The United Kingdom, traditionally the closest US ally, has also refrained from taking part in the attacks. “This war is also functioning as a catalyst for Europe to pursue greater strategic autonomy from the United States,” Chrysostomou concluded.
Source: CNA